Saturday, April 12, 2014

Brief Update

I am still out until May, but wanted to do a quick update.  We have gotten the anticipated sell into April.  Where we stand short term is indicators are not quite at bounce level.  I anticipate the bounce to come in the next 5 trading days and perhaps in the 1790-1800 price range.  I say perhaps because I need to see indicators match up at support before I think it is a level that will resonate.

I expect the bounce to be countertrend.  Bounce or no bounce, I am looking for at least SPX 1700-1710 by late May early June.  I will adjust if the market takes a different path.

Longer term the song remains the same.  We did not take out SPX 1915-25 area.  Accordingly, the Big bear still is a viable scenario.  We are still long term bullish until we have breaks.  As I have discussed ad nauseum, the 2012 pivot low holds the key.  Break it and long term bear is likely back.  Hold it and the new bull is primary.

Sorry for being so chartless.

Peace, Om,
SoulJester

Friday, March 21, 2014

ADDED SHORT POSITIONS

I doubled the short position here at the double top:


Stop remains that SPX 1920 area as was originally posted. Looking for a move down in April, and potentially a larger move down into June/July. I will be back to posting probably in May. Her eis the prior entry post. Prior Entry Post. I am still looking at this as a potential topping area. NYSE MASTER COUNT. We still have that IWM channel right in this area. IWM TOP CALL UPDATE. If I am wrong, here is the Exterme Bull Count. Binary Moment. I am watching this indicator setup form yesterday. Yesterday's Indicator Analysis. This has potential to be a significant correction longer term, which is why I am playing it longer term. Recent Long Term Update.

There is always a bear path and a bull path. We cannot know which path our future willl choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.

Peace, Om,
SoulJester

Thursday, March 20, 2014

EXTERME BULL VERSUS HARD BEAR WAVE DOWN: INDICATOR ANALYSIS

As we chop the monthly average here, I have been trying to find an indicator edge between the binary Extreme Bull Wave versus the Hard Bear Wave Down setups. Extreme Bull Wave versus Hard Bear Wave Down Post. I have indicators on sell, which keeps me from buying the Extreme Bull Wave, but I would really like to for a trip to SPX 1900s if that is where it is going.

So far, I remain on the bearish side waiting for a low to be made into April, as we was indicated in the earlier post (link above). So I thought rather than stare at price and speculate about an unknowable future, I would study some indicators to see if I could find any edge. The price charts are muddy, but here is the best I could come up with on indicators, and it isn't bad.

First, that last 5 times during this up wave from 2012 that the Stochastic on the Absolute Breadth index have made a double bottom rather than just flowing back to the top are identified on the chart below by date:

I have applied those dates to the NYSE chart, which holds the bearish master EW count.  I have those dates identified with Cyan Blue Circles on the chart below:


As you can see, each of those indicator setups produced down moves with some being larger and some smaller. 5 out of 5 is one hundred percent if my math is correct. Is this the time it will fail?  I will assume that it will do what it did in the past and sell off.  Accordingly, I am staying with the sell into April scenario.

I will continue to have limited availability to post on the blog and will largely be posting on Twitter.  Happy Equinox!  In this day. On this day in 1345, the Black Death was created from the "triple conjunction of Saturn, Jupiter and Mars in the 40th degree of Aquarius." March 20, History. I have not seen any of the professional TA guys posting 1345 chart Analogs, so hopefully we are in the clear.  :-)  If not, Boils!

There is always a bear path and a bull path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.


Peace, Om,
SoulJester

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Extreme Bull Versus Hard Bear Wave Down: Binary Moment

I am still out until May and largely posting thoughts on Twitter when I have time. However, I wanted to take a few minutes to post an explanation of my morning Tweet.

This week we are at a binary moment between the Extreme Bull Wave and the Hard Bearish Down Wave Scenarios. In the February 20, 2014 post I drew out the Extreme Bull Wave Scenario, which you can see so far we have followed to within 1 trading day. February 20, 2014 Extreme Bull Wave Chart:


In that post, I indicated that there was a chance a big down wave setup could be built, but I was not personally there on the setup. February 20, Extreme Bull Update.

I am now there on the setup and I have a clear marker which I believe delineates between the two binary scenarios. Specifically, on March 14 (1 trading day after the low identified in the chart above) we put in a day that on SPX (not the ETFs) was below the prior 12 daily highs. This is likely the end of a wave 2 (Extreme Bull Scenario) or the beginning of the hard down move into April 4-7. Accordingly, if we reverse and take out that high (SPX 1852.44) the down move is upon us. If we do not take it out by Thursday or Friday at the latest this week, I will move the Extreme Bull Scenario back to the primary and be looking for an April 6-9 high in the SPX 1900s.  

For now, I think it will reverse. However, I do not have crystal balls and what I think really does not matter. So, I will be watching the time and price marker I have identified going forward. 

From an inter market standpoint, USDJPY 101.19 is key support for a further risk on move (assuming the correlation with equities continues), which I have been talking about the past weeks. We are hovering above that area this week. Here is the Weekly USDJPY chart, which is still showing declining 13 EMA, declining MACD, is below its 21 EMA, and below both its Weekly and Monthly pivots (the "P") on the chart. This is Presently Bearish, and why I lean for an equity reversal in the next two trading days. This can be changed, and we have the equity marker to know if it has changed, but for now it is bearish and correlated to equities. That is the explanation for how I chose a side at the binary moment.


There is always a bear path and a bull path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.

Peace, Om,
SoulJester

Thursday, March 13, 2014

The 2012 Wave Up May Be Complete

From an Elliott Wave perspective, one can now count the move up off the 2012 low as complete. Here is the chart:


This is important for the long term scenarios I have been discussing. Most Recent Long Term Update.  The stop remains at that SPX 1920 area because that is the tippy top of the fib extensions as I have mentioned. However, presently we now have a completed wave count here with the final wave (v) of 5 being equal to the wave (i) of 5.  

The wave up off the 2012 low is important in my analysis as I have long explained. By way of summary, I will explain again. I concluded that there is a triangle in the middle of the wave up off the 2009 low. That has two potential ramifications from an Elliott Wave perspective. Either that triangle is the end of a complex correction from 1998/2000, or it is the B wave in an ABC up off the 2009 low. 

Accordingly, if the triangle completion at the 2012 low is the end of a complex correction, then the wave up off the 2012 is the first wave in a new bull market (yes, I know it could be a 5th, but that does not affect the analysis). This would be bullish. On the other hand, if it is a B wave in an ABC off the 2009 low, then we would have just completed a corrective wave in the correction that started in 1998/2000 and would be about to witness 5 waves down to the SPX 430 area.

So, the 2012 holds the key to the universe. If that low fails, the ABC off the 2009 becomes primary and we are still in the now 14-16 year correction from 1998/2000.  If that low holds, the correction ended in 2012 with a complex triangle conclusion and a new bull market is underway since 2012.

It follows, that if the labelling I have is correct and the wave (at least first wave) up off the 2012 is complete, then we are in the beginnings of either (1) a wave 2 down to back test that low, which will hold, and a bullish wave 3 will follow, or (2) the beginning of a visicous bearish wave down that will break that 2012 low and take us sub the 2009 low.  

So, we are at interesting times from an Elliott Wave perspective. I personally hope that we are in the beginning of a new bull market and that the bear market ended in 2012. I just follow charts and believe the 2012 offers a key marker on whether the 1998/2000 bear market has ended.

Of course, the wave could extend (I had originally thought, with indicator confirmation, that the May 2013 top--where the Red 3 is placed--was the top of the wave up off the June 2012 lows). Elliott Wave is primarily descriptive and not predictive. Primarily.   

There is always a bear path and a bull path. We cannot know which path our future will take. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.



Peace, Om,

SoulJester