Monday, December 15, 2014

1986 Support Level

Thursday December 18.  

End of Day Post. The market is in good shape and we are safely in from way below. I am very close to getting an RLS Buy Signal (Intermediate Trend). The Long Term Signal is about to go back to 3/3 bullish. I am taking off the tentative long term bear primary and we are back to the long term bull (I think it will confirm by returning to full bull).  

We did a 61.8 retrace. Accordingly, the swing level target is SPY 224. The short target is 218. These are approximate numbers (not charting right now because of holidays).

If you remember, the long term Bull Primary forecasts a March 2015 high. Here is the current weekly chart:



Here is the November 18 pre-correction chart with the March 2015 high noted (sorry no time for chart making today):



As long as the market stays above that blue weekly moving average at SPX 2009, the bull market is on fine footing here. I may not be able to update indicators, so this is my last update post until after the New Year.

Peace, Om,

SoulJester

Morning Post. Nailed the low. This is a first level harvest area at 205 on the short term part of the exhaustion play off the low. Stop is now set at SPY 200. I continue to be bullish off that level and am waiting for a RLS Trend buy signal to begin the trend part of the trade. Long term I am waiting for the trend to push back to 3/3 bullish (that will take time) to remove the bearish long term scenario.

As indicated I am out for the holidays and will not be updating regularly.

Wednesday December 17.

There was the ramp off the 125 SMA. I have set the stop at yesterday's low. Below that level I will be extremely cautious before turning bullish again (see blue line counterfactual below). Hopefully this ramps back above the 21 EMA (IWM already has) and is on its way to fixing the cracks in the long term trend as was the play. The next LT target on IWM is 126.

I am out for the holidays and will not be updating. Have a happy holidays.

Tuesday December 16. 

Tuesday Afternoon. I am still uncertain whether the low is in or not. There is a distinct possibility, however, that this was a cycle low and that the December 25-27 potential cycle low date is wrong. In the event that I have nailed the low, I worked up the first level target. Nothing else has changed today from an analysis perspective. This is an exhaustion play, meaning I have no indicator confirmation yet. Chart:



Tuesday Morning. So far we have the rally off the 125 SMA today, which is an IT bullish reversal level. I do not yet have an IT trend change to bullish, so I cannot rule out the counterfactual blue line scenario that I posted at end of day yesterday. I would like to see a close above the 51 EMA, which is currently at approximatley 202.07 (where we have stopped so far) on SPY for bullish continuation.

However, this is the level for the Bulls to step in and try to move a bullish continuation and I am going to treat it like the low and sweat out the blue line scenario. USDJPY has rallied strong as well with indicator divergence on the 8 hour chart off today's low. Charts:





There is no reportable change in the LT Trend signal--there is still the bearish data point that needs to be fixed and is clouding the bull move based upon my technical analysis. I am off for the holidays right now, so my posting is limited. Happy Holidays!

End of Day Update. The one thing I did not like about today's low was it was early per the cycle low that I have been anticipating on December 25-27. I did a couple indicator studies this evening. There is at least a decent chance that I am early off this support area. If I end up being early, those studies forecast a choppy move down into the December 25 cycle low. Here is the chart:



The first few choppy moves could really do anyting under the 51 EMA which is at approximately SPY 202 prior to the move lower under the analog scenario. There is, of course, a chance that I was right all along today. But, I wanted to lay out the I am early scenario because after looking at it there is a decent chance I was a bit early. 

Original Post.  If we are still bullish, this is the anticipated 1986 support today. I am speculating bull here off that support. If we get a buy signal and a strong buy signal I will add. Here was the post. 1986 Support. We have cracks in the Long Term trend, so this could fail. But this is where the Bull Market would rally and fix those cracks.

My posting is limited with the holidays. Apolgize for being so chartless today.

There is always a bull path and a bear path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the Disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.

Peace, Om,
SoulJester

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Long Term Bearish Scenario Now Primary

I have been tracking a bearish analog for the past few weeks, but ignoring it and remaining bullish. Today, a long term trend indicator flipped bearish. There are still two indicators I need to see roll over to confirm that bearish flip.  

But, as it flipped at the December 10 cycle date, I am tentatively moving the bearish long term scenario to primary. The targets, cycle low, and conditions necessary for returning to the bullish scenario are listed on the chart:


I would not be surprised if the market fixed the conditions that caused this switch in primary scenario. However, until it does, I am following the long term bearish scenario. I do not know the future. I can only follow what the charts are presently saying.

My posting time is limited during the holidays (why I moved the blog to private during Thanksgiving) and I do not know how much time I will have to update until the New Year.  

There is always a bull path and a bear path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the Disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.

Peace, Om,
SoulJester

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Is a currency reversal coming?

Just an update on the dollar and yen long term potential currency reversal plays.

EURUSD has neared its lower support line:



USDJPY has neared the fib resistance at 119.50-120.00:



GBPJPY is in historical indicator position that historically has marked tops:



There is always a bull path and a bear path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the Disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.

Peace, Om,
SoulJester

Monday, December 1, 2014

RLS Trend Indicator Moves to Caution

The RLS Trend Indicator moved to Caution today. This is not yet a sell signal. This is a time to harvest any remaining long positions and wait to see if the market can correct the indicator or if it goes into full sell mode. Nothing has changed in my analysis that I am following.

Here is the current SPY chart:


There is always a bull path and a bear path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the Disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.

Peace, Om,
SoulJester

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

EURUSD Bullish 8 Hour Chart

If you have been following, I have been looking for a cycle high for the dollar. I was not sure if we would get one more low in the dollar forex pairs (e.g., EURUSD) or not off the November 10 post. November 10, Dollar Weakness Post.  We now have a double bottom in EURUSD on the 8 hour chart.  I am bullish with this pivot low as the stop on that position.

Here is the chart:


Here is the weekly chart. There is lower trend line support in the 1.22 area. However, as we overthrew the triangle on one of the top waves, it is very possible we "under throw" it here by not quite touching it for the reversal. This is a long term play, so it may take a few stabs at it if I have this one wrong. Weekly chart:




There is always a bull path and a bear path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the Disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.

Peace, Om,
SoulJester